Friday, March 27, 2009

Get to second base and score more runs

Part of my game plan entering into any league or tournament is to score at least 6 runs per game. A critical element to the teams ability to attain this production mark is their ability to get to second base quickly. If you think about it, a runner on 2nd is only one hit away from scoring whereas a runner on 1st is either two hits away or needs for the hitter to drive the ball to the wall for him to score. In the next few moments, I will provide you with evidence on the scoring percentages for all the bases with varying number of outs in an inning, as well as provide different methods for advancing the base. One thing is clear, if you can't get to second base, you will have difficulty scoring.

The scoring percentages below are based on more than 60 years and thousands of major-league baseball games. We can make the assumption that they will be reasonably similar for our high school programs.

Scoring Percentages

Runner on 1st
w/ 0 outs = 43%
w/ 1 out = 29%
w/ 2 outs = 14%

Runner on 2nd
w/ 0 outs = 60%
w/ 1 out = 45%
w/ 2 outs = 26%

Runner on 3rd
w/ 0 outs = 70%
w/ 1 out = 54%
w/ 2 outs = 32%

Goal is to get to 2nd base or beyond with 0 or 1 out. The likelihood of scoring is significantly high and can impact a game.

A runner can get to second base a number of ways:

  1. Extra base hit (double, triple, etc.)
  2. Steal
  3. Hit-and-run
  4. Sacrafice bunt
  5. Passed ball
  6. Balk
  7. Error

My approach has always been to acquire 2nd base based on the players ability to execute the skill in the order above. For example, I would evaluate the players ability to steal the base ahead of a decision to sacrafice bunt and give up an out. The bottom two elements, I have little control over.

The scoring percentage on 3rd base is obviously higher and a decision to advance from 2nd to 3rd base should be weighed against the risk of the attempt. A runner advancing from 2nd to 3rd on a steal with 1 or 2 outs may not be worth the risk- depending on the game situation. The main point of this post is to communicat the important for your players to drive toward second base early using varying methods.

Get to second base and score more runs.

1 comment:

  1. Where did you get your numbers?
    I show
    First no outs 0.86
    Second 1 out 0.65